The dollar index is struggling with the EMA50 above 103.60

Dollar index chart analysis

The first three days of this week were positive for the dollar index, jumping from 103.20 to 104.20. Yesterday, we saw resistance at that level and bearish consolidation that brings us down to the 103.30 level. There, we get new support that starts a bullish consolidation that continues today up to the 103.80 level. Additional support is provided by the EMA50 moving average in the zone around 103.60, which could push the dollar to the 104.00 level together.

By moving above 104.00, we have a new opportunity to test the previous high and make a break above. Potential higher targets are 104.20 and 104.40 levels. We would have to go back below the EMA50 and the 103.60 level for a bearish option. After that, we test the 103.50 level, and if it does not hold, the dollar continues to retreat again, looking at the 103.20-103.30 support zone. Potential lower targets are 103.00 and 102.80 levels.

Next week brings very important news.

For Monday, we have only the US 10-Year Note Auction, then on Tuesday we have US CPi monthly, US CPI annual and 30-Year Bond Auction. On Wednesday morning, at the opening of the EU session, we have British GDP, the rest of the news is in the US session: US PPI, Crude Oil Inventories, Fed Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Statement and NZD GDP.

Thursday is D-day for the entire market. To start the day: Bank of Switzerland Interest Rate Decision, Bank of England Interest Rate Decision, ECB Interest Rate Decision. All mentioned banks are expected to leave interest rates at the same level as before. In the afternoon, we have Core Retail Sales, Initial Jobless, Retail Sales and the ECB Press Conference in the US session. On Friday, we will only have the US Services PMI.

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